So Texas gets to play right in the state of
Texas. Against Ryan Day and the Death Star Supernova
. Ohio State Buckeyes. This team is playing the
best football in the country. Steve Sarkisian is absolutely
right. Ohio State's favored by 5.5 in a game
that's gonna be played right in the heart of Texas
, which that should show everything because, let's be
honest, I feel like the line should be more
. I think the, the, the idea that
this is played in Dallas is keeping the line artificially
low. I really do. Because I always,
I don't look at lines right away. I always
think of just like final scores, I look at
the game and then, and then I look at
the line and that kind of informs who I pick
against the spread. And in this game, I
can just tell you, like, I'm gonna pick
Ohio State, and I am Absolutely gonna take them
to cover. Look at what they have done over
the last couple of weeks. Let's get into this
game. This is a matchup that I predicted would
be the title game. So here they are late
in the season. They were on the same side
of the bracket, so we're getting it in the
semi-finals. I believe this game. will be Almost
, almost. Won and lost in the 1st quarter
. In that I believe Ohio State has the ability
and mindset right now to go turn this into exactly
what happened to Tennessee and Oregon. So the number
one job Texas has in this game, number one
, amongst other jobs, but number one. You
gotta survive the 1st quarter. You have to survive
what is inevitably going to be an offensive onslaught early
of aggressive play calling from the best offense in the
country. They've got to survive. Texas has built
big leads over the last two games in the playoffs
. Ohio State has as well. Texas, uh
, you know, after the big leads didn't play
quite as well. Ohio State kind of cruised to
victory, cruised to victory in both of those games
. Texas has to survive the first quarter. Ohio
State jumped out 21-0 on Tennessee, then 34-0 on
Oregon. Those are the leads in the first two
playoff games. If that's the case, it's a
wrap. Both of those games were a wrap.
Tennessee was not coming back from a 21 point deficit
. Oregon was not coming back from a 34 point
deficit. That is not happening, in particular against
that Ohio State defense. So, survived the first
quarter. That's number one. Let's talk about this
Ohio State team, kind of what we've seen for
for a moment before we get into Texas. Obviously
, the schematics have changed a little bit. I've
talked about that at length. We saw the defense
change a little bit, how they rushed the quarterback
, how they cover on the outside, taking away
the first read on the outside. We've seen Niko
Yamayava and Dylan Gabriel have to hold the ball.
The pass rush starts to show up. The only
success. Tennessee or Oregon had really was the ability
of the quarterback to try to elude the rush and
then find secondary and and 3rd in the progression wide
receivers and sometimes even on broken plays. That was
really the offense for Tennessee and for Oregon. There
there wasn't really anything in the base offense there for
either of those teams. OK, so we've talked
about the, the schematics from the Ohio State defense
and the way that they're playing. We have talked
about what this offense is doing since the Michigan loss
. They have gone into speed in space, players
, not plays. Who's touching the football, where
are they getting it? And how aggressive are we
being? And they are aggressive, as aggressive as
they have been all year long. I do think
it's, it's worth pointing out that the past game
being dynamic early has opened up their ability to be
more effective running the football. And when you see
that, I'm like, OK, I went back
and I was like, how much of that?
Cause I, on TV it's almost all counter gap
schemes, meaning they're pulling offensive linemen, they're pulling
extra tight ends, and they're creating extra gaps and
they're down blocking and so it's gap scheme running versus
zone scheme running and Ryan Day historically has been a
zone running team. And I'm like, I haven't
seen much zone, so I went back and I
watched the film and I'm like, yep, they
have basically abandoned the zone run game. They do
not have the offensive line that can just sit there
and push in a zone scheme, which means they're
kind of sitting there and and staying in position,
creating a hole. They can't do that. So
they've got to kind of fold the offensive line and
bring pullers in, and that type of counter gap
. The scheme has been really effective for them once
they've opened up the defense via the aggressive passing game
. That order is what's working. It's not run
in order to throw, it's throw in order to
run. And then you start getting the ball to
these backs and, and there's been some big runs
that have popped because of that. So that's what
we're seeing right now out of Ohio State schematically.
However, that's not the best thing that's going on
for Ohio State. The best thing that's going on
for Ohio State is that psychologically, this team has
totally changed. For the majority of the year,
it looked like this team was going out there trying
not to make mistakes, trying not to lose football
games. That's the way they played against Michigan,
that's the way they played against Nebraska, for that
matter. And then you started to see like small
glimpses of a team that could play free and easy
and really have a psychological anger to go out there
and prove themselves. You saw that a little bit
early in the Indiana game and then For the entirety
against Tennessee, for the entirety against Oregon. This
team psychologically has totally changed. This is a team
playing with something to prove, with the freedom of
something to chase rather than protect. Something happened in
that Michigan game, and it wasn't just that the
schematics of the offense was broken. It was like
the psyche of the old Buckeyes was broken, and
now the psychological freedom and anger of this Buckeyes team
has been unleashed on everybody that they play. That's
the way it looks. That's the way it looks
. Texas I've loved this Texas team. Got to
cover him against Michigan. That day I thought,
oh yeah, this team could definitely win the national
championship. Sarkis has built them and, and built
that roster into a roster that can absolutely compete at
the, at the top end. And I am
a huge fan of Steve Sarkisian. This is the
2nd straight year that they're in the national semifinals.
He has done a remarkable job at Texas, really
has, because that, that program was essentially in
the desert of college football for the better part of
10 years until he got there. They could not
figure it out. They were wandering around in the
wilderness, looking at themselves, talking to themselves about
how much money they have in their program, and
, and just no success. Of any note to
speak of. Now, back to back years,
this guy has come in. His first year didn't
go like everyone planned. It got a lot better
his second year, and now here he is and
he's sitting here, back to back semi-final appearances.
He has done a great job and they're only gonna
get better from this. He continues to recruit.
He's got quarterbacks lined up now, as yours probably
is not gonna be the Texas quarterback in the future
. He's got, uh, Arch Manning sitting there
. He's got young quality players. He totally rebuilt
their line of scrimmage to be from a weakness into
a real strength, which we saw against Clemson play
out, and even in in some parts saw against
Arizona State. So this Texas team I'm a huge
, huge fan of, huge fan of. Now
, what are the issues with the Texas team?
Well, the issues pop up when an opponent can
beat and win the line of scrimmage, beat their
offensive line. We saw that against Georgia a couple
of times, and then we saw that really against
Arizona State. I didn't think Arizona State was going
to be able to sit there and stop the run
against Texas like they were able to do, and
they did a really good job of it. Georgia
obviously did that in both outings against Texas, one
in Austin and then in the SEC championship game.
Here's the problem for Texas. Ohio State's run defense
is a top 5 run defense in the country.
And I think they're better than Georgia's run defense.
I think they're better than Arizona State's run defense.
If you look at Texas and what they did against
, you know, I would call like regular or
average defenses, even in the SEC they ran the
ball well against Kentucky, 250, 240 against A&M
. But then you go out there and it's like
31 against Georgia in the SEC championship game. Clemson's
defense, not particularly strong on the defensive line.
Texas, 292, running the football. Arizona State
, 53. Like, what are we doing with
these peaks and valleys? Well, there's something in
common. The front of Arizona State and Georgia is
probably better than those other fronts. And so when
they see somebody that actually has a bit of a
spine and a backbone in their defensive front 6 and
7, they struggle running the football. Ohio State
is the best defense they will have faced, period
. In particular upfront, and especially with the way
that that defense is playing. Specifically on the defensive
line. That defensive line is playing incredibly well.
That's a problem because When they, when their run
game is taken away, the, the dynamic nature
of their play selection changes. See, Sark,
when he's got the full throat of the offense going
, now, like he's got something, the motions
pop up, the play action pops up, and
it's really good. When he doesn't, yours just
has to put a cape on his back, which
he can at times. Again, the drive to
score in the second half against Arizona State, yours
was terrific. And then on the 4th and 13th
, like, Step up and make a throw.
That was brilliant stuff from Quinn Ews on 4th and
13th from Arizona State. But like, can you
do that from a sustained nature? They struggled to
do that against Georgia in either matchup. They struggled
at times against Arizona State, and this is a
defense that is the best defense that they will face
. So Texas has got to establish some sort of
run game, some sort of run game, cause
if they don't, now it just becomes a yours
deal and you're trying to throw against the secondary that's
taking everything away from everybody. The first read is
not there against Ohio State. They're taking that away
. They're playing tighter to the line of scrimmage.
They can take away the first read. The safeties
are really good and very smart, and so they
can confuse quarterbacks, they can change coverages. They're
rolling and disguising incredibly well. And that is not
good. What does it do? What does it
promote? It promotes the quarterback to hold the ball
for an extra beat. If you can't get to
number one, and then you're trying to decipher and
diagnose what's going on on the back end, you
hold the ball for an extra beat. And when
you hold the ball for an extra beat against Ohio
State, the rush shows up. This is why
they're so difficult to face right now. This is
why they're the supernova of college football. So even
when you're as good as Texas, the problem comes
in as if you can't run the football. If
they make you one dimensional, it's over. And
I'm not inspired with a ton of confidence that the
Texas offensive line is all of a sudden against Ohio
State gonna show up and do what they did against
like A&M or do what they did against Clemson.
All right, I would, I would more lean
towards, this is probably gonna be a Texas offense
that looked like what they did against Georgia. Take
from that what you will. I do think yours
has been playing really well. Um, I was
, I was. Down on him a little bit
after the SEC championship game. I think he has
played a lot better in the playoffs and, and
they're gonna need a lot of that. He's gonna
have to be great, and here's why. Ohio
State's offense is not gonna get stopped. As good
as Texas is on the defensive side, this is
just not an offense that's going to get stopped.
Tennessee is a very good defense and like you saw
what happened against Tennessee. Um, they are learning
. Chip Kelly and Ryan Day have, have married
their two strengths. Chip in terms of running the
football off of the passing game and Ryan's ability to
just be aggressive in the passing game, it has
turned them into like this dynamic offense, and when
they want it, man, It's beautiful. Watching
the film of the two first halves against Tennessee and
Oregon, it's just like, oh my gosh,
I would not want to be a defensive coach watching
that film and trying to put together a plan.
You gotta be disruptive and you've got to hope that
Will Howard plays like he did against Michigan and not
against Tennessee and Oregon. That's the biggest difference to
me. The one thing that's not getting enough credit
for Ohio State offensively is the way that Will Howard
has been playing the last two games. I tell
you what, man. It is night and day
difference from what he did against Michigan. Will Howard
has been Exceptional. He was really good against Oregon
in that Rose Bowl. That film was his best
film that he's ever put out, ever, ever
. Now, is it gonna be more difficult?
Probably cause Texas's secondary is better than Tennessee's secondary,
and it is better. Then Oregon's secondary. So
it will be a little bit more difficult, but
man, when you've got the confidence to play like
Will Howard is playing, it really should continue.
His play has been the key to Ohio State,
and if he continues to play well, they will
win the game. And maybe by a large margin
, maybe by a large margin. I just don't
see, even though this game is in Dallas,
I don't see this Ohio State team taking their foot
off the gas. And if we're being really honest
, the back half of the year, Texas has
not quite looked like their full self, and it's
gonna take their full self. They're gonna have to
win the first quarter to keep the crowd engaged in
Dallas and not allow the Buckeyes to just run off
and hide. They have to run the football.
There's a lot of things, the dominoes that have
to fall over for Texas are to me, just
too many. Whereas Ohio State, they've got a
lot of paths to victory here. Steve Sarkisian is
right. Ohio State is playing the best football of
anybody in the country. They've got a great roster
and if they play like that at all, they
should win this game. I like Ohio State in
this game, 34-21. Ohio State is favored by
5.5. I am going with the Buckeyes. They're
covering the 5.5, 34-21. Ohio State wins it
, and I am predicting a Notre Dame. Ohio
State national championship game.