Well, last year our gambling preview was Dior's last
show. So I feel like that probably gave us
some bad vibes. Put us off to a bad
start, but this year I'm starting it off and
I'll be here all throughout to help you. Um
, so that's good. Yeah, go ahead.
Amazing. He's amazing. I'll be here throughout.
Uh, but yeah, so first off, we've
got the teams that were betting that we're not betting
or in other words, stay away, stay away
. Ok? So there are gonna be about 20
of these that I don't have a super. I
don't have a strong enough feel on to put money
on, but I still like a side, meaning
none of these teams am I gonna say, ah
, the number is perfect. I, you know
, I'm not giving you a thought on it.
So these were gonna roll through and we have them
ordered from the highest projected win total to the lowest
win total of the teams we're not betting on if
that makes sense. So we will start with the
Niners whose projected win total is 11.5. 01 other
thing, sorry, I'm just so excited. We
are because we're adults and we're actual gamblers. We
are going to do this show with the real juice
attached to it. So, the Niners total is
11.5. But it, that does not mean,
well, if you bet over or under, it's
, you know, minus 110 on both the,
uh, like on all, almost all of these
, there is significant juice on one side or the
other, by the way, if you're listening right
now and you're like, what do you mean by
juice? This show might not exactly be for you
or you just need to not worry about the minutiae
of the gambling talk. Just keep in mind as
always, uh, thank you as always demon with
everything football, gambling related. If I say a
minus number, we're not talking point spreads here.
That is how much you have to wager to win
$100. If I say a plus number, that
is how much you win if you wager$100.
Ok. So that the, that is the very
simple way to look at it. The niners total
is 11.5. I don't feel strongly enough about it
to bet it. But if I were to bet
it, I would be betting under 11.5 getting plus
126. And the rationale of that is very simple
. They've had an brutal off-season. They, they
auks still not there. Trent Williams still isn't there
? Brock Purdy. Has been, uh, not
great this preseason and off season. So I think
winning 12 games is hard. I also think that
division is better than people necessarily think it or than
maybe some people think it is. So Nick,
why are you not betting it then? Because they
, the Niners, they might have one of the
best rosters in football. I'd rather, I,
I think there are better spots and I, I
just think there are better spots to go out there
and put your money on it. By the way
. Speaking of the division, what demons and I'm
curious how you feel about this because you haven't seen
this from me. But this will inform the audience
for the, about the rest of the show.
One of the things I do is I power rank
the divisions on my own when I'm thinking about projected
win totals. Ok. So here is how I
have power ranked the divisions. I've done it one
through eight, but I've also put them in three
buckets of the best, as you would say,
mid and then the bottom bucket. Best division in
football I believe is the NFC North. I think
you have the, the Lions, the Bears,
the Packers who are all good. The Vikings who
I think have a really good coach. Their quarterback
situation is gonna be tough for them. I think
that's the best division in football, the second,
best division in football I believe to be the NFC
West where you have the Rams, the Niners and
the Seahawks all legitimate teams and a potentially Frisky Cardinals
team. And then the third best division in football
is the AFC North. The Ravens, Bengals are
excellent. The Steelers Browns are well coached with good
defenses. Those three divisions to me, Demonte are
head and shoulders above the rest. How does that
land, uh, you know, on your doorstep
, I, I thought the North maybe be ahead
of the West, in my opinion, uh Either
in that two or AFC would be higher than the
NFC West. Um That's my opinion. I can
honestly, I'd honestly put AFC North at number one
, but that's just, I think most people would
. No, I don't think it's just you,
I think most people would, but it informed my
picks this year. Here's why I didn't, I
don't think the Steelers are gonna be good and I
think the Browns have a disaster on their hands at
the quarterback spot. So I think people look at
it as, oh, those are four legitimate teams
. I don't, I think that there's two excellent
teams and two, ok. Teams. Meanwhile,
the NFC North and the NFC West, I think
that each division has three good teams. Seahawks,
Rams, Niners, Bears Packers Lions, all right
now to the two mid divisions, ok. That
I have at number four, the AFC South and
at number five, the AFC East. And that
is because the AFC South I don't think has any
outstanding team but has two, maybe three good teams
in the Texans, the Jags, the Colts and
then the Titans are there, the AFC S,
they feel similarly, I don't think there's a juggernaut
, but I think there are three good ish teams
in the Bills, the Jets and the Dolphins.
And then the reason that, that the AFC S
could be higher, but the Patriots are so bad
that they drag the like they're just, I mean
, they might be a three win team and so
they drag it down and then so does that sound
about right to you? I like that one and
then the bottom three divisions, here's how I've got
it. Number six, the NFC East where I
I am not as you will see as high on
Philly as a lot of people. I Dallas is
not had a great off season. The commanders could
be interesting. The Giants will be terrible. The
AFC West I have at seven because the Chiefs are
awesome. The Chargers are, I think going to
be better because of Harbaugh. Uh but they have
no weapons and I think this is kind of a
build year. The Broncos uh are, are one
of the least on paper talented teams in the league
even though I actually think they'll be sneaky better than
people think this year. And the Raiders are brutal
. And then obviously, and last is the NFC
South as it has been regularly over the last few
years. So that's how I ranked the divisions.
NFC. North NFC, West AFC North, followed
by AFC. South AFC East, followed by NFC
. East AFC, West NFC South. All right
. Now, back to our actual gambling show.
We're 10 minutes in, we've given out one over
under. This is why we couldn't do the CD
LAM topic. Um, Detroit, uh, the
total is 10.5. You know what I wanna do
this for these ones. We're not picking. Don't
look at the rundown demon. All I wanna do
it like this for the ones we're not picking and
you don't have to worry about the juice because I
, I'm gonna tell you the team and the number
and you just tell me if you, which way
you would lean over under and if it's one and
, and you can also say if you love it
. Obviously, none of these are ones I love
because I, they're in the teams. We're not
betting. Detroit's 10 number is 10.5. The juice
is on the over at minus 130. Yeah,
that, that's, it's honestly a tough one.
I'd have, I'd have to go under just because
I've been saying that I think the lions are gonna
take a step back this year. Ok? So
that was one I, I don't, but also
let me say that I don't love going under,
but that's just so that's why to stay away.
So that's why to stay away because I'm going over
and I don't, and I have a team in
their division making the Super Bowl in Chicago. So
I, I, you know, it's obviously conflicted
, but if I had to go one way I'd
go over. All right, Baltimore's total is 10.5
. It's juiced to the, it's juiced to the
under at minus 1, 22. I'd bet over
. I love it. I think, I think
Lamar Jackson's going to have his best season ever,
which is crazy because he's had some really good regular
seasons. But I just think all the cards are
on the table for, for Lamar Jackson at this
point and you can just play football and I think
it's, I think it's gonna go very well.
They got everybody they had last year with the respect
of mo No. Well, so they have,
they have all their spins but lost a couple of
offensive linemen, lost a couple of defensive pieces and
lost their defensive coordinator. So I, again,
these are not ones I feel strongly about, but
I lean, I would lean under Buffalo's number is
10.5 juiced heavily to the under. Uh, it's
like minus 1, 55 for the under on that
Buffalo's, uh, uh, total is 10.5.
Which way do you lean? I'll go under on
it and I'm glad that these are stay aways because
you and I have disagreed on all of them so
far. I, to me, I like the
over and this is where the juice on this matters
to me, Buffalo. This is a perfect number
. Buffalo is going to win 10 or 11 games
. So if I can get plus 135 on the
over and minus 155 on the under, I would
go over for Buffalo. But again, these are
stay away. All right, the, we'll do
this faster in this regard. Here are the teams
at 9.5 that we're staying away from Houston and Atlanta
. They are both at 9.5. They are both
minus 140 juice to the over. Uh, how
do you feel about each of those teams? Houston
at 9.5? Uh, yeah, I'd say I
like that one. I like the over on it
. I go over on it. That's where I
would be leaning as well. Go ahead. Next
. It was the second one was Atlanta over.
Yeah, I, uh, I call it over
. I, I'd be cool with going over on
9.5 on Atlanta. Me too. Again, the
, these are stay aways, but that's how I
feel. Houston. I think there's a little too
much like super bowl buzz, but they're gonna,
I don't think they're gonna be bad. So they're
gonna be, you know, at least 500.
So 500 puts you at nine and eight essentially.
So I would tend to lean to the over there
and Atlanta, I really like the addition of Judon
the, of the safety. All of a sudden
, the defense isn't such a disaster if Kirk's healthy
. All right, here are the 8.5 teams.
The Chargers, the Browns, the Colts and the
Steelers are all 8.5. Uh, obviously the juice
we, we don't have to get into it on
these that we're staying away from the juice varies.
How do you, where would you lean on Chargers
? Browns called Steelers, all 8.5. Chargers at
8.5. I'd go, uh, man, the
Chargers can win nine games. So I guess it
depends on what the schedule is. Yeah. O
over. I'm cool with going over for the Chargers
. Keep in mind. Yes. And keep in
mind last play schedule for them because they were so
bad last year, last year than the Raiders and
Broncos and the Harbaugh bump. So I'm with you
. I, I, I'd be an over for
the Chargers and this some full disclosure here. This
would have been a bet. I would have bet
the over for the Chargers if, uh, Herbert
didn't get the plantar fascia or plantar fasciitis. That
one worries me. The walking boot worries me and
I know they're saying it's gonna be healthy week one
, but all the internet doctors say it could flare
up and so that made it a stay away.
Otherwise I would have done it. All right.
The other three are Cleveland, Indy and Pittsburgh are
, they're all 8.5. Indy. I'm gonna go
under 8.5. Uh, I'm sorry, Anthony Richardson
. I know I want to root for Anthony Richardson
and I know they won nine games with Gardner,
but I'm also going under next. So Cleveland Cleveland
8.5. Uh, I'd say I'd go over on
Cleveland. I'm not going to go under on it
. I mean, not Cleveland, I'm sorry,
Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh,
Pittsburgh, Cleveland. Um, yeah, I guess
. Yeah. No, I, I, I'd
go under but not just because you said I,
I just think Deshaun, I think Deshaun is going
to potentially get benched. I mean, it's weird
that they brought in Jame. I, and so
I, that's just something to watch. Pittsburgh.
I think their quarterback situation is gonna be a disaster --> .